The MERLIN Project
Paul Guercio is a co-founder, with Physicist Dr. George Hart of The MERLIN
Project® Research Group. MERLIN is the first, scientifically-based forecastng
technology that combines equations derived from celestial phenomena with past
historical data and blends that information into a graphical time-line that
accurately plots the chronology of future events. (Source: CNN, NBC, NPR)
Physicist, Dr. George Hart first hears Futurist, Paul Guercio with
Dr. David Brudnoy on WBZ Radio in Boston and contacts him to
arrange a professional consultation. Dr. Hart is intrigued with Paul’s theory of
“time-patterns” since it parallels his own extensive research as a highly
respected theoretical physicist and inventor of the excimer laser used in
Dr. Hart comes to Paul’s office for a professional consultation and to discuss
this “time-pattern theory” at length. The consultation time is pre-empted by a
fascinating and wide-ranging discussion of common experiences as the two
researchers spend nearly six hours comparing notes on time-related anomalies and
possible forecasting models.
After five separate and similar meetings over the subsequent six months, Dr.
Hart offers to design software built around Paul's theory of Time. A team of
underemployed SDI (Star Wars) physicists is recruited and the MERLIN
Project is born July 4, 1989 in Lynn, MA at 11PM.
First working copy of the MERLIN software (October 5, 1989; dubbed ‘Timetraks®’)
forecasts the imminent demise of the Soviet Union or alternately, World
War III. Both Paul and Dr. Hart consider either scenario unlikely at best. The
efficacy of the entire MERLIN premise is at stake.
Soviet Union collapses and the Berlin Wall comes down (November 5, 1989)
as Eastern European Communism quickly disintergrates. The newly-designed MERLIN
software has proven to be a stunning success.
From New Years’ through the late summer of 1990, the tempo of the research with
MERLIN increases. The complexity of the program’s graphical output steadily
improves and the enhanced level of sophistication of the software permits much
more precise forecasts to be made.
Saddam Hussein invades Kuwait and MERLIN forecasts a war, beginning in January
1991 and lasting only six weeks. This is considered an unlikely prospect
at best in the summer of 1990.
Paul and Dr. Hart unveil the MERLIN "Gulf War" forecast on a New York-based
national call-in radio program with FOXNEWS commentator and long-time
client, Alan Colmes as host.
The Boston Globe and Boston Herald each do a series of articles on
MERLIN and its creators and their unlikely but very specific “Gulf War”
On the strength of their “Gulf War” forecast, all three of the major Boston TV
stations do feature pieces on MERLIN and The Associated Press puts the
MERLIN story on their national and international wire. It is subsequently picked
up by newspapers and magazines around the world including the London-based
Arabic newspaper AL HAYAT, which features the MERLIN story in their
Science section. No Arabic newspaper had ever run a story on the subject of
forecasting the future, a talent previously reserved only to Allah.
The Gulf War commences on Jan. 16th and lasts almost precisely six weeks (as
predicted), marking another stunningly accurate forecast for the two
researchers and their remarkable “time pattern” software. Broadcast and print
stories about MERLIN begin appearing in such diverse publications as the German
magazine PM PERSPEKTIVE and USA TODAY.
The NBC Nightly News sends a news crew to Boston to tape a formal
interview with Paul and Dr. Hart for use on the evening Tom Brokaw
national telecast. During the taping, the MERLIN co-creators forecast a huge
drop in the Stock Market, which immediately occurs the following day. In the
meanwhile, ABC News NIGHTLINE hotly debates taping their own interview
and National Public Radio broadcasts an hour-long national call-in show
on MERLIN by satellite. NBC subsequently airs their taped interview, including
the stunning Stock Market prediction which is widely seen and CNN's Larry King
LIVE calls to arrange a segment on MERLIN.
CNN's Larry King LIVE features a segment on MERLIN, which is seen in 210
countries with a viewing audience estimated to be 20-30 million worldwide. On
that show, MERLIN forecasts an extraordinary and imminent career spurt for
Larry. Barely two months later, Ross Perot single-handedly turns the King
show into required viewing by utilizing a February 1992 interview with Larry to
announce a dramatic 3rd Party Presidential bid. Between 1992 and 1996, the King
show becomes the place to announce breaking-news of worldwide interest.
MERLIN’s prescience continues unabated.
VANITY FAIR approaches the MERLIN team about doing an exclusive,
long-form interview about the Project. Then Editor-in-Chief, Tina Brown
requests that MERLIN “Timetraks®” be calculated for herself and each of her
senior editors. The “Timetraks®” reveal a fact (then) known only to Tina and
owner S. I. Newhouse; (that) she is about to have a “job change.” Within
90 days, it is announced publicly that Tina will become the new Editor-in-Chief
of The NEW YORKER. The announcement becomes a publishing mega-story!
Meanwhile, the MERLIN article is scheduled to appear (in Vanity Fair) the month
following Tina’s jump to The New Yorker. Newly installed VF Editor Graydon
Carter indelicately pulls the piece and a potpourri of other Brown-tenured
articles. Ah, politics!
The second of four CNN appearances (Larry King) occurs and a multitude of
feature segments air on several New England TV stations. Unbeknownst to Paul and
Dr. Hart at the time, MERLIN's uncanny success has triggered the beginning of
high-level intelligence surveillance by the Pentagon, culminating in the
spring 1995 with a request by the Joint Chiefs of Staff for a
comprehensive "white paper" on the MERLIN technology that focussed on plotting
the timetable for potential incidents of future domestic terrorism.
The possibility of a "MERLIN book" is first discussed with a literary agent and
the MERLIN team is approached by author Sidney Sheldon, offering the
tempting prospect of a MERLIN-based novel. Sheldon is rumored to have considered
a MERLINesque story line in a later work..
MERLIN has now become an annual outing on CNN, with Paul and Dr. Hart
forecasting tough-times for Bill Clinton; he later lost both houses of
Congress to the Republicans in the Nov. 1994 election (first such loss in 40
years.) MERLIN also predicted that Bob Dole would be his opponent in the
1996 election, almost two full years before Dole even announced that he
would seek the Republican nomination. On the same program, they also predicted
unparalleled drama in the final years of the Clinton Administration (what would
later become known as the ‘Clinton Impeachment Scandals,’) four years before
anyone ever heard of Monica Lewinsky.
The last of the initial CNN appearances ("TalkBack LIVE") was the most
successful and drew the largest audience to that show since its inception. CNN
President, Tom Johnson personally invited Paul to his office afterwards
for an hour-long chat to discuss possible joint ventures (and to have a look at
his own MERLIN Timetrak®.) Paul told Johnson that, if Ted Turner were to
sell the privately-held CNN, it would likely be in the next 6 to12 months.
Turner sold CNN to AOL/TimeWarner the following September, precisely
nine months later.
The MERLIN team receives a call from Lieutenant Colonel Mike Lenhert, who
was attached to the Joint War Fighting Center of the Pentagon's Joint
Chiefs of Staff. They were informed that MERLIN had been under surveillance for
three and a half years and were asked to prepare a comprehensive "white paper"
on possible intelligence applications of the technology for his "flag officers."
(They later find out that flag officers are two-star Generals and above.) They
produced a 50 page report in July 1995 on MERLIN's intelligence capabilities,
focusing on domestic terrorism. (The Oklahoma City bombing occurred later in the
same month they were initially contacted, on April 19th.)
In the report, they elected to use the first World Trade Center bombing
of Feb. 1993 as MERLIN’s "time-model." The resulting “Timetraks®” suggested that
the next significant incidents of domestic terrorism were likely to occur in the
period beginning in mid-summer 1998, peaking in 1999 and 2000 and tapering off
in the late fall of 2001, with a pronounced break in the trendline coming at the
end of 2001. (Bin Laden hit the Trade Center (again) Sept. 11, 2001.)
By employing this “time-model,” MERLIN had uncovered the likely window of
opportunity for a second terrorist strike on the World Trade Center six years
before it happened.
Paul and Dr. Hart spent most of late 1995 through early 1997 working on a MERLIN
book, tentatively titled "Surfing the Waves of Change in Your Future,"
which was initially accepted for publication by the Viking division of
PENGUIN-PUTNAM Publishers in the spring of 1996. Then, curiously, the
representative for the book, (publisher) Marty Greenburg, bowed out of
the negotiations without explanation and a serious illness struck the Viking
executive who had made the original offer. Since the initial advance was quite
small, Paul and Dr. Hart shopped around for another offer, eventually ending up
in the offices of Judith Regan, Editor-in-Chief of imprint ReganBooks,
a division of HARPERCOLLINS. After several months of negotiations, Judith
made a formal offer, but then, inexplicably, put the project on hold so that she
could devote her time to an ill-fated autobiography with ex-Playboy centerfold,
Jenny McCarthy. The McCarthy book failed miserably and even engendered some
nasty litigation, but by then a very weary MERLIN Team had invested almost 18 months
in getting the book project ready for publication, only to see their efforts
thwarted repeatedly, without explanation in 1996 and 1997.
What was even more curious, is what became of MERLIN’s extraordinary media
exposure. In the 18 months that followed the submission of their Pentagon “white
paper,” virtually every point of media contact evaporated. Producers of programs
where MERLIN had been favored guests were replaced or were now unwilling to (even)
return their phone calls. Press coverage, which was extensive and uniformly
positive, dried up, as though someone had purposefully turned off the faucet.
More likely, as later became apparent, their high profile exposure and
uncanny accuracy, combined with constant and unflattering forecasts of
upcoming Clinton scandals and excesses, were perhaps a little more than the
Clinton White House could tolerate. Like their friend and fellow traveler,
Matt Drudge (MERLIN forecast Matt’s meteoric rise several years before he
broke the Monica Lewinsky story), they were effectively muzzled by strategic
phone calls and the cloak of national security issues. Their personal lives and
well being were also challenged (Paul was shot at (they missed) during
this period; yes, there is a Police Report!) and their various employment
and professional relationships were seriously compromised.
By the year 2000, it had become clear that MERLIN had been the target of a
concerted effort, likely orchestrated by Administration loyalists, to be
discredited and marginalized. If it hadn’t been for FOXNEWS commentator
and long-time client (and friend) Alan Colmes, who continued to schedule
regular, monthly appearances on his WEVD New York nightly call-in show
and occasional local appearances on the Boston media, the MERLIN Project team
would have virtually disappeared from the scene.
In the fall of 2001, the 9/11 Al Qaeda terrorist attack on New York’s
World Trade Center and the subsequent strike on the Pentagon, provided graphic
and timely vindication to the MERLIN Project forecasts and it’s pioneering
creators and the January 2001 Inauguration of Republican George W. Bush
ended a several years drought of their extensive media exposure.
In March 2003, the MERLIN team approached David Shanks, the CEO of
Penguin-PutnamUSA with an interesting proposition. Could MERLIN be the
rightful heir to the audience that had become fascinated with books like
Michael Drosnin’s ‘The Bible Code’ or the Penguin-published sequel,
‘Bible Code II.’ The ‘Bible Code’ books suggest that there are modern
predictions, like those involving the 9/11 attacks and the current Iraq War
embedded in the original Hebrew texts of the Old and New Testaments.
Shanks promptly turned the project over to Senior Editor Denise Silvestro,
who after profuse apologies for delaying a serious investigation of the book
proposal for nearly a year, turned the project over to Berkley Editor Ginjer
Buchanan. Buchanan, in turn, wasted several more months before admitting
that she had never actually invested anytime in reviewing the project. In
complete frustration, after an exchange of often terse emails, Paul requested
that the proposal and proprietary materials be promptly returned.
On July 27, 2003 after years of preliminary work, MERLIN establishes a
presence on the Internet’s World Wide Web by premiering the first
interactive Merlin Project website, http://projectmerlin.com.
In its first full year of operation, the website generates a respectable total
of over 3,500 hits.
In August 2003, the MERLIN team made the first of a (now) series of dramatic
appearances on ‘COAST-TO-COAST AM with George Noory,’ a PREMIER
Radio syndicated program that is heard on more than 500 stations in the US
and Canada, as well as on SIRIUS and XM Satellite Radio and on the
Web. Predictions made about the disastrous course of the Iraq war and the
December 2003 capture of a very much alive Saddam Hussein (among others,)
were stunning. They also forecast the likely emergence of John Kerry,
John Edwards and Richard Gephardt from the crowded field of
Democratic Presidential contenders. Remember, (that) this was six months before
the Democratic primaries were held, when it appeared that Vermont Governor
Howard Dean all but had the nomination sewn up.
As a result of their initial appearance and the remarkable success of their
on-the-record predictions, the MERLIN team was invited back for a return visit
to ‘COAST-TO-COAST AM’ in August 2004. (But) unlike 2003, the date for
this appearance is chosen using the MERLIN ‘Timetrak®’ technology and only
George Noory and his producer, Lisa Lyon were told of this in advance.
Remarkably, this show captured an audience estimated at over 8 million listeners
and produced a listener response of more than 75,000 hits on the MERLIN website
over the next several weeks -- twenty times the response achieved during the
entire preceding year.
On that program Dr. Hart predicted an immediate looming conflict with Iran
and North Korea, which made news barely one week later (and which is
gathering momentum, right now – mid-January 2005,) and the continuing and
escalating insurgency in Iraq. They addressed the confusion that is now evident
in the wake of the 2004 Election results and the hopelessly inept
policies of the second Bush administration. As a direct result of that
program, Paul and George were also introduced to the legendary Hollywood
literary agent Mike Hamilburg by a very pleased ‘C2C AM’ listener and friend and
the rest, as they say, could well be history in the making!
© 2004-2007 The MERLIN
Project® Research Group All Rights Reserved
The MERLIN Project Research Group
P.O. Box 1241 -
Seabrook, NH 03874
Call Toll Free (866)-298-7688